A1 – Hazard departure

The frequency of impact results from the frequency of failure, currently rated qualitatively, and from the probability of propagation. The objective is to quantify the frequency of rupture, which will make possible the quantitative assessment of the frequency of impact and risk. The influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of rupture will be also studied, allowing the modeling of the influence of climate change.

A1.1 - Quantification of diffuse hazard

A1.2 - Quantification of localised hazard

A1.3 - New experimental approachs for measuring localised hazard

A2 – Sensitivity of hazard trigger uncertainties and climate change

The climate context of the rock plays an incontestable role in triggering the movement of boulders. Factors characteristic of the massif and materials on the one hand, environmental factors on the other hand are the two sets of parameters that influence the occurrence of hazard “fall of boulders”. This action will focus on two families, with a special effort on climate data modeling, and rely on data obtained within other actions for the characterization of the parameters of the massif. It will operate in particular feedback data from observation of the massifs (monitoring environmental, followed by deformations, statistical fall…).
In a context of climate change, it should be:

  1. clarify values and ranges of variations of the most influential environmental factors,
  2. specify the weight of these factors by a detailed analysis of the trigger mechanisms,
  3. on the basis of the experience feedback, quantify relationships between environmental variables and the descriptive parameters of induction,
  4. estimate how the tripping hazard is likely to evolve to specific climate change scenarios.

A2.1 - Modelling of climate trigger hazard

A2.1 - Evolution of extreme events occurency

A3 – Risk of spread

This action consists of laboratory and field testing in order to achieve a benchmark of different approaches to modeling in trajectographique analysis.

A3.1 - Benchmark trajectographic softwares

A3.2 - Taking into account variability and uncertainty of field parameters on the evaluation of spreading hazard

A3.3 - Taking into account forest cover in spreading hazard

A3.4 - Modelling of volume crumbling

A3.5 - Quantification of resulting hazard on communication way